研究揭示人群密度对COVID
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研究揭示人群密度对COVID

文章来源:美高梅网站>【官网首页】    时间:2020-10-10

本期文章:《自然—医学》:Online/在线发表

英国牛津大学Moritz U. G. Kraemer研究团队揭示人群密度对COVID-19流行的影响。这一研究成果于2020年10月5日在线发表在国际学术期刊《自然—医学》上。

研究人员分析了城市中高分辨的空间变量以及病例计数数据,来调查气候、城市化和变化在干预措施中的作用。研究人员表明,人口聚集和异质性强烈影响了在短时间内压缩COVID-19病例的程度(疫情的高峰),因此拥挤城市中的流行病随着时间的流逝更加分散,拥挤的城市总人口感染率高于人口少的城市。观察到的流行病高峰期差异与明确说明空间层次结构的COVID-19人口模型一致。研究人员将估算值与全球范围内有关人员流动的综合数据配对,并预测全球拥挤的城市可能会经历更长的流行时间。

 

据了解,COVID-19大流行在全球范围内给公共卫生系统造成压力,并且已经实施了主要的非药物干预措施以减缓其传播。在疫情爆发的最初阶段,SARS-CoV-2的传播主要是由人群流动性决定的。然而,缺乏关键地理因素对当地流行病传播的影响的经验证据。

 

附:英文原文

Title: Crowding and the shape of COVID-19 epidemics

Author: Benjamin Rader, Samuel V. Scarpino, Anjalika Nande, Alison L. Hill, Ben Adlam, Robert C. Reiner, David M. Pigott, Bernardo Gutierrez, Alexander E. Zarebski, Munik Shrestha, John S. Brownstein, Marcia C. Castro, Christopher Dye, Huaiyu Tian, Oliver G. Pybus, Moritz U. G. Kraemer

Issue&Volume: 2020-10-05

Abstract: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide, and major non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread1–4. Yet empirical evidence on the effect of key geographic factors on local epidemic transmission is lacking7. In this study, we analyzed highly resolved spatial variables in cities, together with case count data, to investigate the role of climate, urbanization and variation in interventions. We show that the degree to which cases of COVID-19 are compressed into a short period of time (peakedness of the epidemic) is strongly shaped by population aggregation and heterogeneity, such that epidemics in crowded cities are more spread over time, and crowded cities have larger total attack rates than less populated cities. Observed differences in the peakedness of epidemics are consistent with a meta-population model of COVID-19 that explicitly accounts for spatial hierarchies. We paired our estimates with globally comprehensive data on human mobility and predict that crowded cities worldwide could experience more prolonged epidemics. 

DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-1104-0

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1104-0

期刊信息

Nature Medicine:《自然—医学》,创刊于1995年。隶属于施普林格·自然出版集团,最新IF:30.641
官方网址:https://www.nature.com/nm/
投稿链接:https://mts-nmed.nature.com/cgi-bin/main.plex

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